Mulligan Luck in the Arena

"Good" and "Bad" types of randomness are a hot topic in the Hearthstone community, with cards like Flame Juggler and Yogg-Saron typically being the focus of discussion. But with the continuing increase in the power level of early game cards (1-drops in particular), it's often your early draw luck that decides a game over any individual minion or spell.

We're always told that playing 1-drops makes a big difference in arena, let's use data to try and quantify how much truth there is in that. In the following article, we will use replay data from 280k matches played in January 2017 to measure the effect on win-rate of what we define as "mulligan luck".

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Popular Legendaries in Gadgetzan

It doesn't feel great when you spend 1600 dust on a card that seems good in theory, only to realize a week later you're not really playing with it (Finja anyone?). So which legendaries are actually playable in the Mean Streets meta?

To find out, we looked at data for ~250,000 legendary minion plays out of about 700,000 games, from early 2017 grouped by their player's class.

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